Is there room for 1700 more Attorneys?
Let me preface this article by saying that I do not have a PhD in econometrics and I did not do extensive field research before writing this article. This article presents a hypothesis and is not conclusive. I do encourage the Council for Legal Education and the Law Association to conduct a study into the market for legal services to ensure that Hugh Wooding Law School is producing enough graduates to meet demand.
However if my hypothesis is correct, Trinidad and Tobago’s market for legal services may have room for 1700 more attorneys before reaching its saturation point.
My Hypothesis is as follows: If the market for legal services in Trinbago grows at a similar pace to the Economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), then the growth rate of the market has exceeded the number of attorneys being admitted to the bar. This is an arguable hypothesis as Law directly plugs into every area of the economy and of life.
Let us now look at the numbers provided generously by Mrs Jade Rodriguez, Deputy Registrar of the Supreme Court and a tutor at our beloved Hugh Wooding Law School:
The number of attorneys on the rolls in Trinidad and Tobago as of 2013: 3836 with 253 attorneys being admitted in 2013.
In the year 2000 there were 1953 attorneys on the rolls with 73 being admitted to practice that year. There was an increase of 1883 attorneys on the rolls for the period 2000 to 2013 or a 96.41% increase.
Now let us contrast this with the growth of the Economy as exhibited by GDP. GDP is defined as the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specified time period, this includes all private consumption, government spending, spending on business capital and the nation’s exports.
According to the World Bank Trinidad’s GDP for the year 2000 was $8.15 Billion US dollars. For 2012 the GDP was measured at $23.32 Billion US dollars. There was growth of $15.17 Billion US dollars or a 186.1 % increase over the period 2000 to 2012. (Statistics for 2013 not yet available)
We can see that the growth rate of the Economy as measured by GDP was vastly greater than the growth rate of attorneys on the rolls.
Now let us indulge in some speculation:
Assuming that in the year 2000 the demand for legal services was equal to or greater than the supply of legal services (as roughly measured by number attorneys), and assuming the demand for legal services has grown at a similar pace to the GDP growth rate, how many attorneys would the market be able to accept today?
Based on a growth rate of 186.1 % for the demand in the legal services market, Trinidad and Tobago should be able to accommodate at least 5587.5 attorneys on the rolls today. That is 1751.5 more than the number admitted to practice at the moment.
So despite all the naysayers who say the field of law is saturated, there should be space for Seventeen Hundred and Fifty One more attorneys to join the profession. There may even be space for someone to be Point Five of a full attorney. Whether that half an attorney practice law only half the time, or practice law that is only half as good as everyone else will be his choice to make.
So what about the horror stories of new attorneys not getting jobs in the big firms and having to work as office clerks? If there is more space how these things could be happening? Unfortunately even though there is more space for new attorneys at law to provide their services, there seems to be a lack of space in the traditional law firms. New attorneys will have to become entrepreneurs and start their own practices in order to exploit the demand in the market.
That being said, this article is more speculation than anything else. The limitations of these calculations are as follows:
1. I have not used the GDP figures for 2013 as these do not seem to be available. Reports are that the economy grew by around 1.6% for 2013.
2. These calculations use the number of attorneys on the rolls for 2013; some of these attorneys may not be practicing law at all as they may be retired or out of the jurisdiction. An in depth study is required to get more accurate figures.
3. The assumption that the market for legal services grows at the same rate as the economy is a big limitation on the study. There is no telling whether growth is faster or slower than what was used in these calculations.
Speculation aside, one is for certain, the growth of the Trinbago Economy has slowed significantly to around 1.6%, down from the heady years of 12.6% growth back in 2006. The number of attorneys on the rolls is growing at about 7% a year (253 being admitted in 2013) which exceeds the growth of the economy.
Care must be taken for the future to ensure that supply does not exceed demand, which may result in a drop in the price of legal services .This in turn could make studying law fruitless investment for those seeking to join the profession. The onus is on the Council for Legal Education and the Law association to steward the legal profession in Trinidad and Tobago towards a bright future.
Let me preface this article by saying that I do not have a PhD in econometrics and I did not do extensive field research before writing this article. This article presents a hypothesis and is not conclusive. I do encourage the Council for Legal Education and the Law Association to conduct a study into the market for legal services to ensure that Hugh Wooding Law School is producing enough graduates to meet demand.
However if my hypothesis is correct, Trinidad and Tobago’s market for legal services may have room for 1700 more attorneys before reaching its saturation point.
My Hypothesis is as follows: If the market for legal services in Trinbago grows at a similar pace to the Economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), then the growth rate of the market has exceeded the number of attorneys being admitted to the bar. This is an arguable hypothesis as Law directly plugs into every area of the economy and of life.
Let us now look at the numbers provided generously by Mrs Jade Rodriguez, Deputy Registrar of the Supreme Court and a tutor at our beloved Hugh Wooding Law School:
The number of attorneys on the rolls in Trinidad and Tobago as of 2013: 3836 with 253 attorneys being admitted in 2013.
In the year 2000 there were 1953 attorneys on the rolls with 73 being admitted to practice that year. There was an increase of 1883 attorneys on the rolls for the period 2000 to 2013 or a 96.41% increase.
Now let us contrast this with the growth of the Economy as exhibited by GDP. GDP is defined as the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specified time period, this includes all private consumption, government spending, spending on business capital and the nation’s exports.
According to the World Bank Trinidad’s GDP for the year 2000 was $8.15 Billion US dollars. For 2012 the GDP was measured at $23.32 Billion US dollars. There was growth of $15.17 Billion US dollars or a 186.1 % increase over the period 2000 to 2012. (Statistics for 2013 not yet available)
We can see that the growth rate of the Economy as measured by GDP was vastly greater than the growth rate of attorneys on the rolls.
Now let us indulge in some speculation:
Assuming that in the year 2000 the demand for legal services was equal to or greater than the supply of legal services (as roughly measured by number attorneys), and assuming the demand for legal services has grown at a similar pace to the GDP growth rate, how many attorneys would the market be able to accept today?
Based on a growth rate of 186.1 % for the demand in the legal services market, Trinidad and Tobago should be able to accommodate at least 5587.5 attorneys on the rolls today. That is 1751.5 more than the number admitted to practice at the moment.
So despite all the naysayers who say the field of law is saturated, there should be space for Seventeen Hundred and Fifty One more attorneys to join the profession. There may even be space for someone to be Point Five of a full attorney. Whether that half an attorney practice law only half the time, or practice law that is only half as good as everyone else will be his choice to make.
So what about the horror stories of new attorneys not getting jobs in the big firms and having to work as office clerks? If there is more space how these things could be happening? Unfortunately even though there is more space for new attorneys at law to provide their services, there seems to be a lack of space in the traditional law firms. New attorneys will have to become entrepreneurs and start their own practices in order to exploit the demand in the market.
That being said, this article is more speculation than anything else. The limitations of these calculations are as follows:
1. I have not used the GDP figures for 2013 as these do not seem to be available. Reports are that the economy grew by around 1.6% for 2013.
2. These calculations use the number of attorneys on the rolls for 2013; some of these attorneys may not be practicing law at all as they may be retired or out of the jurisdiction. An in depth study is required to get more accurate figures.
3. The assumption that the market for legal services grows at the same rate as the economy is a big limitation on the study. There is no telling whether growth is faster or slower than what was used in these calculations.
Speculation aside, one is for certain, the growth of the Trinbago Economy has slowed significantly to around 1.6%, down from the heady years of 12.6% growth back in 2006. The number of attorneys on the rolls is growing at about 7% a year (253 being admitted in 2013) which exceeds the growth of the economy.
Care must be taken for the future to ensure that supply does not exceed demand, which may result in a drop in the price of legal services .This in turn could make studying law fruitless investment for those seeking to join the profession. The onus is on the Council for Legal Education and the Law association to steward the legal profession in Trinidad and Tobago towards a bright future.
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